Towards detecting bioclimatic niche – species distribution modelling in four maple species (Acer spp.)

Abstract

The aim of this paper was firstly to describe the ecological and geographical differentiation of the four maple species (Acer spp.) in Serbia and Kosovo based on floristic and phytocoenological data, and secondly, to model their distributions in order to predict which areas the species can be expected in. The intention was also to compare the resulting prediction maps with the available field records and see whether there are any differences between the actual and the predicted ranges. The data set included 1979 species records and each record was accompanied by geographic coordinates. The geographical analysis was performed on the chorological data (latitude, longitude, altitude), while the ecological was based on vegetation data relating to the association, alliance, order and class as well as on 19 bioclimatic parameters. The data set was georeferenced using GIS tools. The results demonstrated that the distribution patterns of all the analyzed species are mostly affected by the limiting effects of the variables related to precipitation and temperature of the dry and also the warm period. Their synergic limiting effects are the most important force shaping distribution patterns within a territory. These findings highlight the importance of defining bioclimatic profiles of species using different techniques of distribution modelling.